View Full Version : IMF: Arab economies will be affected by a slowdown in the global economy in 2011

10-07-2010, 09:30 AM
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Started by the Office of Canada - conscious
Thursday, October 7, 2010 06:19

Office Canada - INA -

IMF: Arab economies will be affected by a slowdown in the global economy in 2011

Thursday, October 7, 2010
Thursday, October 7, 2010

Said the International Monetary Fund in the yearly update of the forecast, that the Arab economies «will not be affected by the slowdown relatively moderate expected in the movement of the global economy next year, but will enhance the growth benefiting from the rebound in oil prices and government spending programs large and rapidly applied by the oil-exporting countries to face the global recession, as well as linkages close trade between the Arab oil states and non-oil.

IMF experts and announced at a press conference yesterday that the economic recovery which began in the Middle East and North Africa, finally, «was based largely on the recovery of oil prices after the collapse of last year noted, enhanced income countries exporting oil.
And supported the huge government spending programs and fast, especially in oil-exporting countries as an additional factor, the growth of non-oil sectors in these countries and non-oil countries thanks to the close trade ties between them ».

They noted that the global recession, the worst since the end of World War II, «reduce the average real growth» (equivalent to inflation) for the Arab economies to two percent last year, but that the present recovery in the region will raise this average to 4.1 percent this year, and then to 5.1 percent next year, despite the fact that global economic growth would fall then to 4.2 percent versus 4.8 percent this year ».

He pointed out that the economic recovery supported by oil prices and government spending programs in Arab countries that export oil (Saudi Arabia, Algeria, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Libya, Sudan, Bahrain, Oman and Yemen), «will lead to developments play an average of growth rates of these economies from 1.1 percent last year, to 3.8 percent this year, and 5 percent next year ».

The start of these developments in the largest economies in the region scale, the gross domestic product, after declining growth rate to less than one percent in 2009, experts said the Fund, the Saudi economy, supported by investments of big government in infrastructure and industrial production will increase the pace of growth is more than six fold to $ 3.4 percent this year, and then strengthened to 4.5 percent next year ».

And is accompanied by the upward spiral of the Saudi economy with a slight rise in the inflation rate to 5.5 percent this year, then slow marginally to 5.3 percent next year (which is the average inflation in emerging and developing economies), as well as the surplus of balance of foreign payments in the same period to 6.7 percent of GDP, falling to then in the form of slightly to 6.2 percent, while retaining the unemployment rate to its level recorded in 2009 and of 10.5 percent.

He guessed Monetary Fund in its estimates, to be repeated positive developments in the rest of the Arab countries that export oil, it is not at the level of economic growth, but also at the level of inflation, which reached an average pace of about 6 percent over the year 2009 and continuing until 2011.
Rates will rise as the average balance of payments surpluses to 6.7 percent of GDP for these countries in the current year and 7.8 percent for 2011 ».

The experts stressed the Fund to be catalysts for economic growth «is not confined to Arab countries that export oil, as not much affected by the importing countries have (Egypt, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, Lebanon, Jordan, Djibouti and Mauritania), the global recession, but maintained a moderate level of growth reached 4.6 per percent in 2009 ».
It is expected to rise in the form of slightly to 5 percent this year, to 5.2 percent next year.
But these fears of failure to translate improved growth in the Arab States of imported oil into tangible gains in terms of inflation and the deficit in balance of payments and unemployment.
But the prospects of these countries differed sharply, as at the time of Egypt will witness a strong decline in the unemployment rate and a slight improvement in the balance of payments deficit, does not exclude the aggravation of these two important indices in both Lebanon and Jordan , and partly in Syria, Morocco and Tunisia.

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10-07-2010, 09:40 AM
Thanks Dinarannie for the post !