Today, 07:43 AM
Economy crisis and opportunities for reform 2 3
Dr. Ahmed Ali Abrihi
it is necessary to understand that the real solution to unemployment in the economic development in the traditional sense. It is despite the inclusion of all sectors of the economy except the manufacturing-centered and do not have another way.
The strength of the unconditional investment efficiency of any investment generates attractive financial returns
To clarify, Iraq's population is now estimated 36 million people, and the working-age population to 59 percent of the total population, and to assume that economic policy designed to run one-third of the total population or 56 percent of the population in the age of work, it means access to the economy, the possibility of providing some 24 million jobs in 2040 outside the oil sector,
and at the moment there are no more than the 8.4 million of them. How much capital is required to achieve this goal? The answer depends on the non-oil GDP per capita, which is intended to achieve at that time and not 15 thousand dollars, which is not much, but keep the economy within the category of developing countries, and without modern manufacturing margin countries the threshold
This goal requires at least $ 3 trillion from $ 2015 an average annual capacity of 120 billion dollars, starts at about $ 47 billion a year to start a modest and ends by $ 241 billion a year the end of the track in 2040.
and to ensure that this investment effort provides needed jobs should adopt an economic policy influence the choice of harmonious technology with a display of power labor to be employed.
Economic and express characteristics of such technology on average that the capital of the worker at the time by about 140 000 dollars, and the intervention in the index of all direct and indirect capital of any of the building's infrastructure, economic, social, and investment product directly in the lab
and does not mean this example the postponement of the solution for many years but the economic goals the longer term are driving the course of the economy in the right direction towards progress, which responds to the legitimate demands and show good results since direct
In 2003, proposed a scenario for the development of Iraq's economy on the basis of strategic growth Almkad industrial exports which Asian model (Japanese, Korean, and Chinese now).
And it reached to the possibility of the arrival of Iraq in 2030 the threshold of the newly industrialized countries. And demonstrated financial, monetary and trade policies are consistent with those elements of
It suggested that the state departments initiate programs to provide an initial investment for the development of sectors, to form informational material help to choose.
And controlling government spending relationship clear to GDP (total economic potential),
the government is committed to a ceiling of wages and employment in the public sector in harmony with the economic role of the private sector on the one hand and financial sobriety on the other hand, has not taken these
In the second half of 2008 decreased price Oil was the occasion to remedy things. It prepared a study of the political economy of the budget deficit at the time, and later became the first part of the book of the international financial economy and monetary policy.
In that study proposed a mechanism for how to cut expenses on the basis of examination of the operations carried on departments and adoption by the General Directorate and similar starting point.
It is the first step to re-examine the budget, at the time, and work continues to rebuild government agencies on the basis of cost reductions in the context of ensuring the efficiency and good disposition of resources.
The study also showed internal financing of budget deficit with a roof of government spending commitment to take into account the possibility of the international reserves of the Central Bank in bridging the deficit the balance of payments, and the time period allowed by those reserves under different assumptions, and neglected those proposals such as its predecessors.
It has been reduced exchange rate of 2,000 dinars to the dollar to 1500 dinars and later to 1170 dinars error right the damage to the economy and opportunities for development.
It is known that over-evaluation Iraqi dinar foreign currency (ie reduce the dollar exchange rate) lead to the deterioration of the international competitiveness of the national economy, a shrinking commodity production for the benefit of the importer and the decline of the potential
With great regret the experts and decision-makers rush to respond without a request for clarification by saying: we do not have what we export, while intended not export than we have. But investment in commodity production decision is meant by it is the essence of the act
Because the price and the cost structure and including the exchange rate and the prices of local shops and cost the Cubs, for the unity of the product in light of technology and organization prevalent, these elements are determined by the financial and economic feasibility of the investment project.
And industrial development does not begin until the moment when the investment is worthwhile, and the exchange rate is an important element in
We have over Msmoao word experts and personalities influential socially their opinion literally ĞLet's have the ability to export first and then adjust the exchange rateğ, and told the implications of bad luck They do not realize Tnaqdahm which is no different to say, let the patient recovers first and then give out
In the fields of economic activity to the private sector there are a lot of studies that have attempted to diagnose the obstacles at the detailed level.
But common approaches have failed to take off from the private business sector mechanism in watercourses decision which is always centered prices and revenues, costs and risk ..
and so on.
Did not speak of an economic government consulted on the subject of the economy and did not show the exchange rate, wages, inflation and tax and subsidy and interest rate relationship at home and return on investment in overseas investment ... the decision of the private sector, and accuse others of being Nzeraon or Mrkzion government. A similar failure in the foreign investment policy because they did not come home from
Did not speak even once on the macroeconomic framework for foreign investment, and it relates to rates of return and risk in Iraq, and the depth of the financial market.
What are the potential for the flow of foreign investment effects, the imposition of receiving, in an oil economy when the balance of payments in the case of the surplus and how they differ when it gets the deficit, and the relationship between investment flows from abroad and reserves of the Central Bank,
and the relationship of foreign investment, the total size of the investment activity and national savings ...
and that foreign investment looking for economic success does not benefit from it to make a development success story for Iraq, has shown that foreign investment in my book (2014).
Had the state departments really owned by the nation and not to the occupants of what things have reached what we are.